JNIM Encroaches on Guinea; al Shabaab Hotel Attack
Mar 22, 2024 – ISW Press
Al Qaeda–linked militants in Mali have increased attacks along Mali’s border with Guinea as part of an ongoing campaign to degrade Malian lines of communication around the capital. The al Qaeda–linked militants are unlikely to expand attacks into Guinea, but sustained activity along the Guinean border creates opportunities for the militants to use Guinea as a rear support zone.
https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Fjnim-encroaches-guinea-al-shabaab-hotel-attack&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.Oh6mNxd5OYM.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo-goHQwcBQdTSfIcaYi5vOvnb-P8g%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I0_1711145341106&_gfid=I0_1711145341106&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=65553745
https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df9911393766e0a7d5%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff4202ecb29eea5569%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Fjnim-encroaches-guinea-al-shabaab-hotel-attack&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, March 22, 2024
Mar 22, 2024 – ISW Press
The Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) expanded its efforts to erode the Republic of China’s (ROC) sovereignty around Kinmen Island. Four CCG ships operated in Taiwan’s territorial waters around Kinmen Island for two consecutive days for the first time on March 15 and 16. One of the ships was a converted naval corvette that conducted the passage with its gun covers removed. The CCG framed its operations as legitimate law enforcement to safeguard Chinese fishermen, including those from Taiwan. The CCG’s removal of its gun covers during its passage through Taiwan’s waters illustrates its offensive posturing, indicating its actions are intended to intimidate the Taiwanese Coast Guard rather than uphold a safe maritime environment. CCG ships have previously used this tactic to intimidate rival law enforcement in contested waters, including the Philippines Coast Guard around Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.
https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Fchina-taiwan-weekly-update-march-22-2024&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.Oh6mNxd5OYM.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo-goHQwcBQdTSfIcaYi5vOvnb-P8g%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I1_1711145341109&_gfid=I1_1711145341109&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=31314477
https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df7da606350ac59ea8%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff4202ecb29eea5569%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Fchina-taiwan-weekly-update-march-22-2024&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false
Iran Update, March 21, 2024
Mar 21, 2024 – ISW Press
Israeli forces continued to conduct an operation in and around al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on March 21. Israeli special operations forces and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 401st Brigade (162nd Division) killed approximately 50 Palestinian fighters and located ammunition depots near the hospital over the last 24 hours. IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated on March 21 that Palestinian fighters remain barricaded in the al Shifa Hospital emergency room and that the Israeli forces are focused on evacuating civilians from the area before clearing the full hospital.
https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Firan-update-march-21-2024&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.Oh6mNxd5OYM.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo-goHQwcBQdTSfIcaYi5vOvnb-P8g%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I2_1711145341112&_gfid=I2_1711145341112&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=37525139
https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df3968e7df3c833cde%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff4202ecb29eea5569%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Firan-update-march-21-2024&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2024
Mar 21, 2024 – ISW Press
Russian offensive tactics will likely increasingly pressure Ukrainian defenses as long as delays in Western security assistance persist. Russian forces are generally relying on their manpower and materiel superiority to conduct a relatively consistent tempo of assaults against Ukrainian positions along the frontline in hopes of wearing down Ukrainian defenders and setting conditions for exploiting Ukrainian vulnerabilities.[9] Russian forces are also expanding their use of tactical aviation, drones, and electronic warfare (EW) systems in Ukraine to prepare for and support these assaults while reportedly conducting artillery fire exceeding Ukrainian artillery fire by a ratio of up to ten to one.
https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Frussian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-21-2024&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.Oh6mNxd5OYM.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo-goHQwcBQdTSfIcaYi5vOvnb-P8g%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I3_1711145341116&_gfid=I3_1711145341116&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=15711142
https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Dfed727db283aba7d5%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff4202ecb29eea5569%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Frussian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-21-2024&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false
Africa File Special Edition: Niger Cuts the United States for Russia and Iran
Mar 21, 2024 – ISW Press
Russian mercenary bases in northern Niger would create an opportunity for the Kremlin to deploy drones in the area to threaten NATO’s southern flank in the future.
https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Fafrica-file-special-edition-niger-cuts-united-states-russia-and-iran&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.Oh6mNxd5OYM.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo-goHQwcBQdTSfIcaYi5vOvnb-P8g%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I4_1711145341118&_gfid=I4_1711145341118&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=20990030
https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df0d0fc4d8038f6d74%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff4202ecb29eea5569%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Fafrica-file-special-edition-niger-cuts-united-states-russia-and-iran&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2024
Mar 20, 2024 – ISW Press
Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited. The Russian military continues to undertake structural reforms to simultaneously support the war in Ukraine while expanding Russia’s conventional capabilities in the long term in preparation for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO.
https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Frussian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-20-2024&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.Oh6mNxd5OYM.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo-goHQwcBQdTSfIcaYi5vOvnb-P8g%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I5_1711145341121&_gfid=I5_1711145341121&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=41833593
https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df3b7d9d6e7092cc54%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff4202ecb29eea5569%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Frussian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-20-2024&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false
