Iran Update, June 14, 2024

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Iran Update, June 14, 2024

Jun 14, 2024 – ISW Press

The IDF 162nd Division continued to operate in Rafah on June 14.  The Nahal Brigade identified openings between buildings in Rafah that Hamas fighters use to traverse quickly through dense neighborhoods.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14, 2024

Jun 14, 2024 – ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined his uncompromising demands for Ukraine’s capitulation as a prerequisite for “peace” negotiations in Ukraine, including the recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied and Ukrainian-controlled territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, in an attempt to undermine the June 15-16 Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.

Why Putin Remains Uninterested in Meaningful Negotiations with Ukraine

Jun 14, 2024 – ISW Press

The Kremlin routinely feigns interest in meaningful negotiations as part of a longstanding information operation that aims to persuade the West to make concessions on Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty. The Kremlin will continue to feign interest in negotiations at critical moments in the war to influence Western decision-making on support for Ukraine and to continue efforts to extract preemptive concessions from the West.

Iran Update, June 13, 2024

Jun 13, 2024 – ISW Press

Hamas is requiring Israel to meet its maximalist demands sooner than stipulated in the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal. Hamas has seemingly not shortened the timeline on which it would release Israeli hostages, however. Hamas issued new demands on June 11 in response to the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the new demands as going beyond Hamas’ previous negotiating position and questioned whether Hamas is acting in good faith in the talks. The new demands involve Israel committing immediately to a permanent ceasefire, accelerating the timeline for reconstruction in the Gaza Strip, and making greater concessions on the release of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas also reportedly requested that Israeli forces withdraw sooner from the Gaza Strip. These changes would help Hamas secure most of its maximalist demands in the first phase of the proposed ceasefire deal and dilutes the second and third phases.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2024

Jun 13, 2024 – ISW Press

Ukraine signed bilateral ten-year security agreements with the United States and Japan on June 13 as other partner states reaffirmed their long-term support for Ukraine within the Group of 7 (G7) and Ramstein formats. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on June 13 that he signed bilateral ten-year security agreements with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the ongoing G7 Summit. The US-Ukraine agreement provides for long-term cooperation in defense and security, economic recovery and reform, and the advancement of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. The Japan-Ukraine agreement provides for Japan’s $4.5 billion contribution to Ukraine in 2024 and continued ten-year long support in security and defense, humanitarian aid, technical and financial cooperation, reconstruction efforts, and sanction measures against Russia.

Africa File, June 13, 2024: Houthi-Shabaab Weapons Deal; SFG Boost in Central Somalia

Jun 13, 2024 – ISW Press

Gulf of Aden. US intelligence claimed that the Houthis and al Shabaab have discussed a deal for the Houthis to provide weapons to al Shabaab. The two groups have indirect connections through regional illicit arms networks that would likely facilitate indirect talks. Direct talks would indicate that the groups are interested in exchanging higher-grade systems not typically exchanged in the Gulf of Aden smuggling network, such as surface-to-air missiles and attack drones.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, June 13, 2024

Jun 13, 2024 – ISW Press

The United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom published a joint bulletin detailing how the People’s Republic of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is recruiting current and former Western-trained fighter pilots and associated personnel to train its respective counterparts.

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