Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2023

Jun 25, 2023 – Press ISW

Russian sources speculated on the specifics of the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s June 23-24 armed rebellion, including the possible involvement of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chief of staff. Russian opposition outlet Meduza, citing unnamed internal Kremlin sources, reported that Prigozhin initially tried to get in touch with the Russian Presidential Administration midday June 24 as Wagner fighters moved north from Rostov-on-Don towards Moscow, but that Putin refused to speak with Prigozhin. Meduza noted that, once Prigozhin observed the lack of widespread military support for Wagner’s actions and changed his mind on Wagner’s prospects, the Kremlin turned to negotiations involving Lukashenko, Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Office Anton Vaino, and Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov. Vaino and Gryzlov’s possible involvement was not reported on June 24. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger also questioned whether the deal will hold Wagner or Prigozhin accountable in any way for the deaths of at least 13 Russian airman on June 24. Prigozhin’s whereabouts cannot be verified beyond his departure from Rostov-on-Don late on June 24. Russian outlet RTVI claimed that Prigozhin’s press service told RTVI that Prigozhin “sends his regards” and will answer all questions “when he is on normal communication,” and a prominent Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel shared an AI-generated image of Prigozhin holding a finger to his lips and stating “plans love silence,” a copy of the phrase commonly used in Ukraine about operational security. As ISW noted on June 24, the specifics of the deal are still unclear in the open source beyond speculation and rumor. The fallout of Wagner’s armed rebellion has not yet concluded, and it remains to be seen how the deal will be implemented, if all involved parties will comply fully, how the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) intend to do with Wagner personnel – and if Wagner fighters will cooperate, regardless of Prigozhin’s wishes.

https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Frussian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2023&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.5o5-TAFr18s.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo_qgszOsFrBH7bZ1Rmfwa9Mc03wLQ%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I0_1687793986213&_gfid=I0_1687793986213&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=13772106

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df360cc2295cf458%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff372c31a7598304%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Frussian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2023&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2023

Jun 24, 2023 – Press ISW

The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin will travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; some portion of Wagner Group fighters will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD); and no Wagner personnel will be charged for their involvement in an armed rebellion. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that Russian authorities will drop the criminal case against Prigozhin and that Prigozhin will go to Belarus, thanking Lukashenko for his role in mediating the deal with the “higher goal to avoid bloodshed.” Lukashenko’s press service earlier broke the news about the deal, reporting that Lukashenko negotiated with Prigozhin and claiming that Lukashenko and Putin agreed to undertake “bilateral actions” to resolve the crisis earlier in the day. Lukashenko stressed the importance of avoiding a ”bloody massacre” and ensuring security guarantees for Wagner fighters. Prigozhin released an audio message after the initial Belarusian report, claiming his “march for justice” achieved its goal and that he ordered Wagner forces back to their training grounds to prevent the situation from turning bloody (after Wagner forces already killed over a dozen Russian personnel). Prigozhin notably did not mention Lukashenko‘s involvement or the details of any negotiated deal in his own statement. The specifics of the deal, how and on what timeline it will be implemented, the expected outcomes for each party, and the extent to which all involved parties will follow the agreement, remain unclear at this time.

https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Frussian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2023&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.5o5-TAFr18s.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo_qgszOsFrBH7bZ1Rmfwa9Mc03wLQ%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I1_1687793986216&_gfid=I1_1687793986216&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=36848264

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df4a4266bde81d4%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff372c31a7598304%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Frussian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2023&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2023

Jun 23, 2023 – Press ISW

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed. Prigozhin amplified a video from a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on June 23 which reportedly shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear-area Wagner camp and accused the Russian MoD of conducting that strike. ISW cannot independently verify the veracity of the video, and it may have been manufactured for informational purposes. Prigozhin used the video to then justify his most explicit rhetorical escalation against the Russian MoD to date and a call for action against the Russian MoD. Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Commanders’ Council made the decision to stop “the evil brought by the military leadership” who neglect and destroy the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers. Prigozhin urged the Russian people not to resist, to remain calm, remain in their homes, and warned that Wagner will “deal” with those who destroyed Russian soldiers before returning to the frontlines in Ukraine after restoring justice for all. Prigozhin also notably accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of personally planning an operation to destroy Wagner and claimed that 25,000 Wagner personnel are prepared to act. Prigozhin later posted an audio message qualifying his previous statements and claiming that there is no “coup,” only a “march for justice.”

https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Frussian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.5o5-TAFr18s.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo_qgszOsFrBH7bZ1Rmfwa9Mc03wLQ%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I2_1687793986219&_gfid=I2_1687793986219&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=41770485

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df172837d75f110c%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff372c31a7598304%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Frussian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, June 21, 2023

Jun 23, 2023 – Press ISW

The Malian junta requested the UN to end its peacekeeping mission in Mali, which is very likely to enable Salafi-jihadi groups to expand and pose greater domestic and transnational threats. The withdrawal of the UN mission will very likely end reconciliation efforts between the Malian government and non-jihadist former rebel groups with ties to al Qaeda–linked militants in Mali. The al Qaeda–linked group in Mali will very likely use these ties and the resulting security vacuum to assert itself as the primary power broker across northern Mali, which it can then leverage to carry out more-sophisticated attacks in central and southern Mali and spread its insurgency to neighboring states in West Africa. The UN withdrawal will also very likely embolden the regional IS affiliate to establish territorial control in northeastern Mali, increasing the group’s threat to US personnel and interests in West Africa.

https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Fsalafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-june-21-2023&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.5o5-TAFr18s.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo_qgszOsFrBH7bZ1Rmfwa9Mc03wLQ%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I3_1687793986223&_gfid=I3_1687793986223&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=26295448

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df9b5b3ef1c4d44%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff372c31a7598304%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Fsalafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-june-21-2023&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false

Iran Update, June 23, 2023

Jun 23, 2023 – Press ISW

The 20th round of Astana talks, which aim to end the Syria conflict, concluded in Astana, Kazakhstan on June 21 without an agreement. Iran and Syria messaged ahead of the forum that their positions are aligned for quadripartite talks, possibly signaling that Iran will back the Assad regime’s demand for Turkey’s complete withdrawal from Syria as a precondition for future Astana talks.

The Iranian rial has appreciated approximately ten percent since May 1, likely in part due to the Raisi administration’s economic diplomacy efforts. The Raisi administration’s economic diplomacy combined with ongoing nuclear talks may have generated confidence in the future of the Iranian economy, consequently increasing the value of the rial.

https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Firan-update-june-23-2023&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.5o5-TAFr18s.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo_qgszOsFrBH7bZ1Rmfwa9Mc03wLQ%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I4_1687793986229&_gfid=I4_1687793986229&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=29463049

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Dfdb2939a6731c8%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff372c31a7598304%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Firan-update-june-23-2023&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, June 23, 2023

Jun 23, 2023 – Press ISW

Ongoing scandals involving the DPP and KMT are likely contributing to greater support for TPP presidential candidate Ko Wen-je.

China emphasized economic cooperation over de-risking and the protection of advanced technological sectors for national security purposes during meetings with German officials, likely to split US-EU technological and economic restriction strategies aimed at China.

China refused to restart military-to-military dialogue with the United States, possibly to extract political concessions from the United States for future dialogue.

https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=large&count=false&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Fchina-taiwan-weekly-update-june-23-2023&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fabc-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Dgapi.lb.en.5o5-TAFr18s.O%2Fd%3D1%2Frs%3DAHpOoo_qgszOsFrBH7bZ1Rmfwa9Mc03wLQ%2Fm%3D__features__#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I5_1687793986232&_gfid=I5_1687793986232&parent=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org&pfname=&rpctoken=37543804

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?action=&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df128236067154ec%26domain%3Dwww.understandingwar.org%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.understandingwar.org%252Ff372c31a7598304%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.understandingwar.org%2Fbackgrounder%2Fchina-taiwan-weekly-update-june-23-2023&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false