The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024
By Simone Pathe, CNN
18 minute read
Published 4:00 AM EDT, Fri April 5, 2024
The US Capitol in Washington, DC, is seen on January 10, 2024. Samuel Corum/Getty ImagesCNN —
Senate primaries are only just beginning, but the matchups in key races that will determine the balance of power in the chamber look relatively settled seven months before the November election.
At the dawn of the second fundraising quarter, the general election is effectively here, and that’s bringing several changes to our list of the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip. Rankings are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising figures and historical data about how states and candidates have performed.
Of these 10 seats, only Ohio and Texas have held primaries so far. Nominating contests between April and August will cement what the other races look like.
The top three races on the list – West Virginia, Montana and Ohio – aren’t going anywhere. They’re still the most likely to flip because they’re Democratic-held seats in states that twice backed Donald Trump. In fact, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s decision not to run for reelection has essentially handed the seat to Republicans, who need just one or two seats to flip the Senate, depending on who wins the White House this fall.
The presidential race has also settled into a general election tempo. While we’re not done with this year’s presidential nominating contests, both Trump and President Joe Biden have already secured enough delegates to become their respective parties’ presumptive nominees.
The changes in the latest Senate rankings come in the next tier of races, which are presidential battleground states that Biden narrowly won over Trump four years ago and that are likely to see a close race again this year. Wall Street Journal polling released Wednesday, for example, showed no clear leader in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump held a slight lead in Arizona. Republicans have a decent shot at flipping these Senate seats, but it’s nowhere near as strong as their chances of winning the first three states on the list.
Pennsylvania – which had long been at No. 4 because it was the rare GOP-targeted seat that didn’t have a competitive Republican primary – drops down to No. 6. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick are unopposed in their primaries, but given how settled the other races have also become, they’re no longer the only candidates waging a general election fight this early. Moreover, there’s not enough data at this point that shows Casey in graver danger than other swing-state Democrats, although that could change.
With Pennsylvania’s move, Nevada jumps up two spots. Further down the list, Michigan moves above Wisconsin despite Biden having carried Michigan by a healthier margin in 2020. The president’s campaign received warnings in the form of protest votes from Democratic primary participants in both states this spring over his handling of Israel’s war against Hamas. It’s too early to say whether those voters will come out for Biden this fall, but it ups the imperative for Democratic Senate candidates to drive enthusiasm for their campaigns. Recent Republican primaries have also offered warning signs for Trump about his ability to consolidate party support.
While the Senate map favors the GOP, Democrats contend that their candidates – many of whom are battle-tested incumbents – are well positioned to overperform Biden, especially now that general election contrasts are emerging. Republicans have worked to recruit candidates who can at least partially fund their own races, but their business backgrounds and some out-of-state connections have given Democrats plenty of early ammunition.
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Republicans get a win this month, however, with the biggest shake-up to the list. Maryland makes an appearance for the first time, sliding in just above Texas. That means nine of the top 10 seats likely to flip are currently held by Democrats (or, in the case of Arizona, an independent who caucuses with Democrats).
No one expected Maryland to be in play three months ago, but former Gov. Larry Hogan’s February entrance gave the race a jolt. It would take a lot for such a blue state to elect a Republican senator – something Maryland hasn’t done since 1980. And former governors don’t have the best track record at winning
