Russian forces continue to advance and to intensify offensive

Toplines

Russian forces continue to advance and to intensify offensive operations in the Hulyaipole and Velykomykhailivka directions, exploiting the effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI) and poor weather that hampers Ukrainian drone observation. Russian forces continued their advance toward Hulyaipole and the T-0401 Pokrovske-Hulyaipole highway — one of the main ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supplying Ukrainian forces in the town. Ukrainian and Russian statements indicate that Russian forces have advanced to positions near the villages of Solodke, Yablukove, and Vesele, within a roughly nine-kilometer range northeast and east of Hulyaipole.[1] Russian forces conducted infiltration operations further north toward Danylivka on the T-0401 highway as well.  ISW assesses that the Russian 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA) and elements of the 36th CAA are attempting to isolate and possibly encircle Hulyaipole from the northeast in accordance with a new campaign design that aims to degrade Ukrainian defenses to enable advances through a combination of BAI, infiltration tactics, and advances. Elements of the Russian 35th CAA, deployed to the south and southwest of Hulyaipole, have reportedly redeployed to the 5th CAA sector.[2] The Russian military command thus seems unlikely to launch an effort to encircle Hulyaipole from the south at this time, likely because Ukrainian defenses in the area are strongest in that direction. The prospects for and timeline of this Russian effort remain unclear at this time, but the situation in the Hulyaipole direction is serious.

Geolocated footage published on November 13 shows Russian servicemembers raising Russian flags in Danylivka (southwest of Velykomykhailivka on the T-0401 highway) in what ISW assesses was an infiltration mission, likely through Tsehelne and Yehorivka (both just east of Danylivka and southwest of Velykomykhailivka).[3] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces seized Rivnopillya (northeast of Hulyaipole) and that elements of the Russian 5th Tank Brigade (36th CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]) seized Danylivka.[4] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on November 12 that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Rivnopillya on the evening of November 11, and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on November 13 that Russian forces are operating near Solodke (north of Rivnopillya), Yablukove (south of Rivnopillya), and Vesele (southeast of Rivnopillya), indicating that Russian forces continue relatively rapid advances northeast and east of Hulyaipole.[5]

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on November 13 that elements of the Russian 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade (36th CAA) reached the Novooleksandrivka-Oleksiivka line (southwest of Velykomykhailivka), gained a foothold east of Yehorivka, and achieved “tactical successes” in the Yehorivka-Danylivka direction within the last two weeks.[6] Mashovets added that Russian forces also crossed the Yanchur River near Uspenivka (northeast of Hulyaipole) and advanced west to the Solodke-Rivnopillya line, covering a distance of seven kilometers.[7]

Mashovets noted that the Russian military command has concentrated elements of up to nine brigades and regiments, including one tank brigade, and up to six other regiment- and battalion-sized units and detachments, along a 41-kilometer front.[8] Mashovets noted that the Russian military command committed elements of the Russian 69th Covering Brigade and the 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade (both of the 35th CAA, EMD) to reinforce the efforts of the Russian 5th CAA and its 127th Motorized Rifle Division, likely east and northeast of Hulyaipole[9] Mashovets assessed that the Russian military command may also redeploy elements of the Russian 58th CAA (Southern Military District [SMD], operationally subordinated to the Dnepr Grouping of Forces) from western Zaporizhia Oblast and elements of the 98th Airborne (VDV) Division and 41st CAA (both of the Central Grouping of Forces) to further reinforce efforts in the Hulyaipole and Velykomykhailivka directions[10][11]

ISW continues to assess that the effects of a monthslong Russian BAI campaign targeting Ukrainian GLOCs in the Hulyaipole and Velykomykhailivka directions — including roads, highways, and railway lines — and worsening weather conditions that degrade Ukrainian drone effectiveness — have facilitated recent Russian advances.[12] A servicemember of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division) acknowledged on November 13 that Russian forces take advantage of foggy and rainy weather conditions to conduct assaults.[13] A Russian milblogger published footage on November 13 reportedly showing elements of the Russian 11th Air and Air Defense Forces Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and EMD) conducting FAB guided glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian forces in Velykomykhailivka.[14]

Russian forces continue to advance in the Pokrovsk direction as Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks. Russian forces continue efforts to complete the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) by advancing through Rodynske, northeast of Pokrovsk, but the settlement remains contested. Geolocated footage published on November 13 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in central Rodynske, and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also advanced in southern Rodynske.[15] A Russian milblogger acknowledged that Ukrainian forces established a foothold in Rodynske, however.[16]

Pokrovsk itself remains contested as well. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces control areas of Pokrovsk south of the railway but that heavy fighting continues in northern Pokrovsk.[17] Geolocated footage published on November 12 and 13 indicates that Ukrainian forces still hold positions in the Pokrovsk City Council building in central Pokrovsk and that Ukrainian forces still operate in northwestern and north of Pokrovsk.[18] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 13 that Ukrainian forces cleared Russian positions on the western outskirts of Pokrovsk and near the entrance to Pokrovsk, likely referring to its northwestern entrance.[19] A Ukrainian regiment operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Ukrainian forces also cleared Russian positions in northern Pokrovsk, secured a logistics route into the town, and are operating along the Donetska railway.[20]  A Ukrainian officer operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Russian forces continue to interdict Ukrainian logistics into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad and will conduct assaults to draw fire from and subsequently attack Ukrainian drone and artillery crew positions.[21] The Ukrainian officer reported that Russian forces can strike a single Ukrainian position in the area with up to 10 Molniya strike drones, six bomber dro