Unpredictable Solomon Islands fuels U.S. concern as China’s influence grows

• The U.S. combat ship USS Oakland visited the capital of the Solomon Islands as part of a ceremony marking the 80th anniversary of the Guadalcanal battles, in Honiara, Solomon Islands, on Aug. 7. | MATTHEW ABBOTT / THE NEW YORK TIMES

• BY KIRSTY NEEDHAM
• REUTERS

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• Sep 5, 2022

Months after the Solomon Islands struck a security pact with China, its leader has repeatedly appeared to snub the United States, heightening Washington’s concern but not deterring it from trying to keep the Pacific nation out of Beijing’s orbit.

Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare’s unpredictable diplomacy will make it hard for the United States to make up lost ground with the pivotal island nation as China seeks to expand its security presence, former diplomats and other analysts say.

As part of a push to boost engagement and counter China’s growing influence, the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden plans to open an embassy for the first time in three decades in the Solomon Islands, an archipelago that switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Beijing in 2019 and in April sealed the security agreement with China.

Washington has since faced a series of rebuffs from Sogavare, who continues to keep dialogue open on U.S. aid.

Last month he skipped a planned appearance with a senior U.S. official at a World War II commemoration. His government did not respond to a U.S. Coast Guard vessel’s request to refuel, a move Washington called “regrettable.” Sogavare then announced he was barring all foreign navy ships from port — while he was welcoming a U.S. Navy hospital ship on a humanitarian mission.

China’s state-owned Global Times newspaper said in an editorial that the prime minister was “counteracting” against Washington.

The U.S. State Department declined to comment. A spokesperson for Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who last month visited Sogavare, said it was “extremely concerning that Solomon Islands are blocking military vessels from their waters.”

Sogavare has a history of erratic behavior, which contributed to him previously losing office as prime minister, said Australian National University Pacific expert Graeme Smith.

Michael Green, a former senior U.S. national security official, said the halt to navy visits is a “net loss” for the United States, which had access before the deal with China, but it does not mean “the game is over.”

“We also don’t know whether Prime Minister Sogavare is paralyzed with indecision given the tough geopolitics — or in the pocket of Beijing — or both,” said Green, who heads the United States Studies Center at the University of Sydney. “Either way, the U.S. and Australia have to keep at engagement and prove we are trusted partners.”

Sogavare’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Sogavare is pushing back against pro-democracy messaging from Washington to avoid being a pawn in a superpower contest, said Mihai Sora, an Australian former diplomat in the Solomon Islands. “Particularly to Sogavare, it is antagonizing.”

His abrupt absence from the 80th anniversary commemoration of the Battle of Guadalcanal played into China’s goals of keeping U.S. influence at bay, said Sora, a research fellow at Australia’s Lowy Institute think tank.

“Of all the Pacific islands leaders, Sogavare is the one that is most accommodating to China’s strategic intent,” he said.

Washington had little engagement with the Solomon Islands before Honiara sealed the pact with China and has a lot of diplomatic ground to make up, Sora said.

Catherine Egbert-Gray, who frequently met Sogavare when she was U.S. ambassador to the Solomon Islands, said China’s assertive diplomacy only reinforces the U.S. decision to increase development assistance and reopen its embassy in Honiara.

Around the time Sogavare recognized Beijing, “he appeared confident he could maintain good and strong relations with all diplomatic partners,” she said. “I hope he remains committed to this goal and does not allow unsavory influences to break down long-held friendships to the long-term detriment of the nation.”

James Batley, who from 2004 to 2006 led the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands, an international security response to violent clashes there, said Honiara’s foreign navy moratorium likely also applies to Chinese vessels.

“It is a way of buying them breathing space,” he said. “I do think they feel pressured from all sides.”

On Friday, the White House announced that Biden will host leaders of Pacific Island nations at a Sept. 28-29 gathering in Washington. The summit will reflect the United States’ “broadening and deepening cooperation on key issues such as climate change, pandemic response, economic recovery, maritime security, environmental protection, and advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific,” the White House said in a statement.

An administration official said the White House had invited 12 Pacific Islands countries, including the Solomon Islands.

The Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga, and Fiji were also invited, as well as the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, and Tuvalu, which Taiwan counts among its 14 diplomatic allies.

Tuvalu Prime Minister Kausea Natano arrived in Taipei on Saturday for a weeklong trip and will sign an agreement reaffirming diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry said.

Natano, whose country this month marks 43 years of ties with Taiwan, was set to meet President Tsai Ing-wen on Monday.

The White House did not provide details on which countries had confirmed attendance for the summit, which had been signaled as a priority by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman during a trip to the region in August.