Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2025
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2025
May 3, 2025 – ISW Press
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied that Ukraine would concede to the vague terms of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unilateral May 8-11 Victory Day ceasefire proposal. Zelensky referred to Putin’s May 8-11 Victory Day ceasefire demand as a “theatrical production” that does not appear to be serious and is designed to create a sense of comfort and safety for participants of Russia’s Victory Day celebration.
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2025
May 2, 2025 – ISW Press
Russian gains along the frontline have slowed over the last four months, but Russia continues to tolerate personnel losses comparable to the casualty rate Russian forces sustained during a period of intensified advances between September and December 2024.
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Iran Update, May 2, 2025
May 2, 2025 – ISW Press
Druze armed faction leaders agreed on May 1 to deploy Druze and Syrian transitional government security forces over key areas in Suwayda Province. Iran is reportedly weighing a compromise to dilute part of its enriched uranium stockpile domestically while exporting the remainder—potentially to Russia—as part of ongoing nuclear talks with the United States. Iran also suggested that it would not build a nuclear-capable missile as a “gesture of goodwill” but rejected halting its broader missile program.
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China-Taiwan Weekly Update, May 2, 2025
May 2, 2025 – ISW Press
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has continued its extensive espionage campaign against the United States and its partners in the Indo-Pacific. This campaign is meant to prepare the PRC for a possible regional war.
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Iran Update, May 1, 2025
May 1, 2025 – ISW Press
The Israeli prime minister and foreign minister said that Israel would “not allow the [Syrian] Druze … to be harmed” and threatened additional airstrikes if the violence does not stop, suggesting that Israel aims to pressure the Syrian government into stopping the violence against Druze. An effort to pressure the government to respond as directed assumes that the Syrian government has control over the Sunni fighters attacking Druze communities outside Damascus.
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2025
May 1, 2025 – ISW Press
The United States and Ukraine published additional information about their April 30 bilateral economic partnership agreement. The Trump administration and the Ukrainian government published the joint text of the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund on May 1 and reported that the agreement is a “fully collaborative partnership” that will fund Ukraine’s long-term reconstruction and modernization.
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Africa File, May 1, 2025: AU, Turkey, and United States Surge to Halt al Shabaab; DRC Peace Talks; Uganda’s Role in the Eastern DRC
May 1, 2025 – ISW Press
A détente between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda will likely limit the scale of violence in the eastern DRC, but proxy fighting between the various pro-Congolese militia groups and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels will almost certainly continue in the absence of a broader agreement with M23.
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Russian Occupation Update, May 1, 2025
May 1, 2025 – ISW Press
Russia continues preparations to deport tens of thousands of Ukrainian children to summer camps across occupied Ukraine and Russia, including to areas of Crimea that are unsafe. The Kherson Oblast occupation administration reported on April 28 that it plans to send 600 children from occupied Henichesk Raion to summer camps in the Adygea Republic throughout Summer 2025 for “recreation and rest.”
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