Europe heat wave turns deadly as France and U.K. brace for hottest days on record

• Andrew Freedman, author of Axios Generate

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An unprecedented heat wave is underway in France and the U.K. that is likely to topple all-time national high temperature records and potentially kill several thousand people. The scorching heat is moving north into a more vulnerable region after tormenting Spain and Portugal.

Why it matters: This is a climate change-related public health emergency. Already, hundreds are dead from heat-related causes in Portugal and Spain and the toll is likely to climb much further.

The big picture: The U.K. Met Office is forecasting the country’s first-ever occurrence of 104°F (40°C) temperatures during this event, with a high of 97°F Monday.

• The U.K.’s national temperature record stands at 101.66°F (38.7°C) set in 2019. That is likely to fall as early as Monday.
• Meteo France is predicting even higher temperatures in that country Monday, as the heat peaks there.
• The air mass responsible for this extreme event originated in northwest Africa, with a heat dome and an area of low pressure just west of Iberia acting as a heat funnel.

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Context: Attribution studies of individual heat waves have shown that by increasing the global average surface temperature by about 1.2°C in the past century, human-induced climate change has dramatically boosted the odds of extreme heat events, along with their intensity and duration.

• Research has even shown certain heat extremes would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change.
• European heat waves in particular have increased their occurrence three to four times faster than other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, according to a recent study.
• “The chances of seeing 40°C days in the U.K. could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence,” said Met Office climate scientist Nikos Christidis, in a statement issuing the country’s first-ever Red warning for heat.

Threat level: Extreme heat can be deadly, particularly for vulnerable groups like the elderly, those with preexisting medical conditions and anyone without access to cooling. This is a particular concern for those in Great Britain, where only about 3% of homes have air conditioning.

• Heat waves are especially dangerous when overnight temperatures remain high, depriving people of relief. Numerous records for hot overnight temperatures have been set so far during this event.
• In Madrid, there have been at least five straight “torrid nights” when temperatures have not dropped below 78.4°F (25.8°C), Rubén del Campo, a spokesperson for the national meteorological agency, stated via Twitter.
• Massive wildfires associated with the heat are burning in southern France, parts of Spain and Portugal, with at least 28,000 evacuated in France alone. The worst fires in France are in the southwestern part of the country, in the region of Gironde.