Dem governors in the big battlegrounds are looking strong — but the GOP is expanding the map
Dem governors in the big battlegrounds are looking strong — but the GOP is expanding the map
The GOP is trying to flip the governorships in New Mexico and Oregon, even as Democrats’ Midwestern battleground governors run ahead in the polls.
While all the races will be hyper-competitive in November, Democrats have piled up fundraising advantages and polling leads in those states, from Govs. Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Tony Evers in Wisconsin to open-seat Pennsylvania candidate Josh Shapiro. | Bill Pugliano/Getty Images
09/07/2022 04:30 AM EDT
The Midwest is at the center of this year’s races for governor. But some blue-leaning states out West are fast becoming some of the most competitive — and surprising — races of 2022.
Democratic governors swept across the middle of the country in 2018, winning governorships in states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And while all the races will be hyper-competitive in November, Democrats have piled up fundraising advantages and polling leads in those states, from Govs. Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Tony Evers in Wisconsin to open-seat Pennsylvania candidate Josh Shapiro.
Yet as some of those races have gotten tougher for the GOP, Republicans have grown increasingly bullish on a quartet of gubernatorial elections further west: Defending their open seat in Arizona, challenging incumbent Democrats in New Mexico and Nevada, and — most surprisingly — making a strong charge for the open seat in reliably blue Oregon, where an independent candidate has scrambled the usual electoral math.
Those dynamics — along with the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision focusing more attention than ever on elections for governor — have seen Republicans get a boost in some places while also buoying Democratic hopes of beating back a wave in some of the key presidential battleground states.
“I think our governors and our candidates are showing resiliency throughout the cycle to the national whims that historically show up in midterm years for the party of the president in power,” said Marshall Cohen, the political director of the Democratic Governors Association.
Still, Democrats remain largely on defense, with the party either trying to protect incumbents or retain control of open seats in most of the tight battlegrounds in the middle of the county.
POLITICO’s Election Forecast projects that more Americans will live in a state with a Democratic governor instead of a Republican chief executive after the 2022 elections, even as Republicans are likely to have more governorships in total. But beyond those topline figures, POLITICO projects as many as a dozen competitive races in November — along with two near sure-thing pickups for Democrats in Massachusetts and Maryland.
“Incumbent governors are hard to defeat, and so you need incredibly strong candidates to do that successfully. We feel many of our candidates out West have proven to be the type of rock star recruits that can get the job done,” said Joanna Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the Republican Governors Association.
