Biden’s Taiwan defense pledge inflames U.S.-China relations
Biden’s Taiwan defense pledge inflames U.S.-China relations
The president’s “strategic ambiguity” backtrack may hasten Taiwan Strait conflict, observers say.
President Joe Biden speaks during a news conference on Monday, May 23, 2022, in Tokyo. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo
By PHELIM KINE
05/23/2022 07:43 PM EDT
The White House moved swiftly to clarify President Joe Biden’s comments, but his assertion Monday that the U.S. will militarily defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion attempt may actually pave the way to conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
It’s the second time since October that aides have had to walk back Biden’s comments that appear to reverse the longtime policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding U.S. willingness to defend Taiwan. “As the President said, our policy has not changed. He reiterated our One China Policy and our commitment to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” a White House official said Monday in a statement. “He also reiterated our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with the military means to defend itself.”
Beijing was unconvinced. On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin warned that China “will take firm actions to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests.”https://8204d90c4ee553db5a7e54b7eea52d06.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-38/html/container.html
The Chinese Communist Party considers “reunification with Taiwan,” a self-governing island that the CCP has never ruled, as a “historical task.” It’s also key to the credibility of President Xi Jinping as he seeks an unprecedented third term as China’s leader later this year.
Observers say Biden’s verbal commitments to defend Taiwan may encourage rather than deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Some analysts argue that it could prompt preemptive military action by Beijing while China’s military offensive capabilities outstrip U.S. capacity to defeat them.
“I still think this is Biden’s gut instinct reflected in mindless wording, not a policy reversal, but it is needlessly unsettling … if Biden keeps doing this, it could be a ‘big deal’ indeed,” Winston Lord, former U.S. Ambassador to China, told POLITICO in a statement. “We should maintain strategic ambiguity. We can deter Chinese attacks on Taiwan without destroying our ambiguous one-China policy, which has been a core element of our relations with Beijing for a half century.”
The U.S. relationship with Taiwan is spelled out in the U.S.-China Three Communiqués, the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and the 1982 Six Assurances. The TRA commits the U.S. “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.” None of those documents specifically obligate the U.S. to military intervention to protect Taiwan in the face of a PRC invasion. But the TRA suggests an active U.S. role in maintaining the island’s status quo.
“It’s simply not correct to say that we have a commitment to come to Taiwan’s defense … the fact that [Biden] keeps misstating the policy ends up undermining deterrence,” said Bonnie Glaser, Asia Program director at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “It might well provoke the attack that we are trying to deter because Xi Jinping could conclude that China should act while it still has a conventional advantage. He might feel pushed into a corner by a U.S. direct challenge to Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan.”
A Rand Corporation report published Monday backs Glaser’s assessment of the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait. The report warns that the U.S. currently lacks the capacity to deter and defeat an economic blockade of Taiwan, let alone a full-scale invasion of the island. “The force requirements for the United States are likely to be heavy. The majority of U.S. reactions require sizable military forces. This force needs to be available shortly after the United States decides to react if the response is to be in any way effective,” the report said.
Taiwan says it doesn’t need the U.S. to figh
