Why Blake Masters Will Beat Mark Kelly in Arizona | Opinion
Why Blake Masters Will Beat Mark Kelly in Arizona | Opinion
NEWT GINGRICH
ON 9/15/22 AT 6:00 AM EDT
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OPINIONARIZONAMARK KELLYJOE BIDEN
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Despite all the talk in Washington about Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, I predict Republican challenger Blake Masters will defeat incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly by a surprising margin.
No one in the left-wing establishment or the propaganda media wants to look at the facts on the ground in Arizona.
First, Arizona is a much more Republican state than Washington’s so-called “experts” think it is.
The most recent Emerson poll has President Donald Trump three points ahead of President Joe Biden in Arizona. The same poll has the governor’s race tied at 46% for each candidate—despite the Republican having come out of a deeply divisive primary. Finally, Emerson has Kelly barely ahead, at 47% to 45%.
When an incumbent senator is only two points ahead of a challenger who just came out of a tough primary, it is clear the incumbent is vulnerable. Furthermore, an incumbent who cannot get above 50% is even more vulnerable. James Carville once said a well-known incumbent gets whatever their final poll number is—they don’t get any of the undecideds. If that is true, Kelly will likely lose 53% to 47%.
However, I think the margin of defeat will be bigger.
