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Electoral College Map Projector Flips All Battleground States to Donald Trump

Published Oct 18, 2024 at 9:07 AM EDTUpdated Oct 18, 2024 at 5:59 PM EDT00:56

Donald Trump Flips Wisconsin In New Poll

US News ReporterFOLLOW

Former President Donald Trump is winning in every battleground state, according to a new Electoral College map projection.

RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker shows that, with no toss-up states, Trump is set to claim all seven swing states. It comes after Wisconsin, which Vice President Kamala Harris had previously been leading since the beginning of August, flipped Republican, with the former president now 0.1 points ahead.

Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania also flipped in favor of Trump in the past two weeks, with the former president 0.5 points ahead in Nevada and Pennsylvania and 0.9 points ahead in Michigan, per the tracker.

Trump had already been in the lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina since at least September. He is currently between 0.9 and 1.4 points ahead in all three of these states.

The former president’s lead in the battleground states means the pollster is now forecasting that the former president will win the election with 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’s 226.

“President Trump is out working Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala’s destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Newsweek.

Newsweek has contacted the Harris campaign for comment.

The vice president is still predicted to win in Nebraska’s second district, where she is 9 points ahead. Nebraska is one of two states (including Maine) that does not use the “winner-takes-all” system for awarding its five Electoral College votes. Two votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote, while one vote is awarded to the winner in each of Nebraska’s three congressional districts.

It comes amid a positive month for Trump in the polls. A recent Fox News poll, conducted from October 11 to 14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, showed Trump leading Harris by 2 points, with Trump at 50 percent and Harris at 48 percent. This marked a 4-point swing from September when Harris was ahead by 2 points.

Similarly, an ActiVote poll from early October showed Trump with a 1.2-point lead nationally, a reversal from September when Harris held a 5.4-point advantage.

Trump has also gained ground in key swing states. A Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll from October 9 showed the former president leading in each of the seven swing states. Meanwhile, a Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll conducted between October 12 and 14 showed that Harris has lost her lead in two swing states—Michigan and Nevada—which are now tied. Trump has widened his leads in Florida, from 4 points to 6 points, and Arizona, from 1 point to 2 points, in the same poll. However, in Georgia and Pennsylvania the former president has lost the 1- and 2-point leads he had held in a previous Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll.

However, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, as well as Nate Silver‘s forecast, still show that Harris is ahead and expected to win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, which would get her over the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.

Harris needs 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to secure victory, while Trump would require 51.

Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows that Harris’ vote share is declining in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while Trump’s vote share has grown marginally in Arizona and Georgia since the beginning of October. In North Carolina, Trump’s lead has narrowed from 0.7 points to 0.5 points.

In a recent newsletter, Silver described the race as “razor-thin,” writing: “Recent polls show a virtual tie in key Midwestern battlegrounds, making it a true 50/50 contest.”

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads Trump by 2.4 points nationally, while Silver’s tracker has her ahead by 2.5 points.